How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

ScienceVolumen: $1.1MLikviditás: $13.4K

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?questio...

Árfolyam történet

Kimenetelek (6)

Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

70.0%

Igen 70%Nem 30%

Volumen: $498.2KLikviditás: $976

Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?

24.0%

Igen 24%Nem 76%

Volumen: $272.9KLikviditás: $1.4K

Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

4.0%

Igen 4%Nem 96%

Volumen: $39.4KLikviditás: $4.2K

Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

1.1%

Igen 1%Nem 99%

Volumen: $30.9KLikviditás: $1.4K

Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

0.8%

Igen 1%Nem 99%

Volumen: $274.4KLikviditás: $3.5K

Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

0.8%

Igen 1%Nem 99%

Volumen: $34.2KLikviditás: $1.5K

Lezárás: 2027. 03. 31.